Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Leading Indicators for stock market (SKEW Index, SMLCW Index, Skyscraper Index & VIX)

CBOE SKEW INDEX


It measures hedging activity against major market moves.
A rise in SKEW Index means that more people are hedging against big market move.

A low of 111.47 is what cooled off the market, currently the weekly SKEW index is at 114.66 (17/3/2020)
 
Support Range (Low at 113-111)
Resistance Range (High above 148)


The rising SKEW could mean investors are wary of major macro events, such as negative trade developments.

CBOE SKEW Index, which represents how traders are pricing the possibility of a “black swan” event.

The SKEW Index is based on pricing for S&P 500 options that are well “out of the money” and would only come into play if the market moves significantly.

Both the VIX and the SKEW look at volatility at a 30-day horizon.
 
The current value of CBOE Skew Index can be found by clicking on the below link

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Process to shortlist - Active Equity Mutual Funds & Fund House


Ever since SEBI introduced direct plans for open ended mutual funds in 2013-14 (Read more about Direct plans below (1)), I have observed that many of my friends have started unsupervised equity mutual funds investment (both lumpsum and SIP route) themselves.
For them to reaffirm their convictions and for those who want to learn, I am listing down few criteria for shortlisting equity mutual funds. As an example, I am using the Fund Factsheet for AUG 2018 of the Parag Parikh Long Term Equity Fund (PPFAS) to illustrate my findings.

1  The planned holding period in the said mutual fund –
As a thumb rule, people should only consider investing in equity if the holding period is at least 5 years (ideally it is 11 years since that is the time required for a complete business cycle). This is applicable for both lumpsum and investment through the equity SIP route. If you have a shorter planned holding period, you should consider Fixed Deposits in government banks or Liquid Mutual Funds. Mutual funds usually have exit load to encourage people to invest for longer terms. For example, in case of PPFAS, they have put an exit/redemption load to encourage people to be invested in their fund for at least 730 days. If you redeem 100 Rs out of your investment before 365 days, you will essentially get 98 Rs.




   Validate the fund objective vis-à-vis the constituent of that mutual fund –


Suppose a mutual fund is called ‘XYZ emerging Bluechip fund’, now the first step is to look at the holdings of this mutual fund. Suppose you see that it has invested in Reliance (say 9%), HDFC (say 9%), ITC (say 7%). So, a good 25% of the fund’s asset are already in well established Bluechip companies and hence it is improper to qualify it as an ‘Emerging Bluechip Fund’.
Basically, whenever and where ever you see that the constituent of the funds is not aligned to the fund objective, please avoid that fund. For example, in case of PPFAS, the fund objective is as stated below


The fund holdings are mentioned below.

 



You can see that PPFAS does stick to it’s fund objective very clearly through this portfolio allocation.




3 Constituent of the fund vis-à-vis Nifty stocks
Many of the so called ‘actively managed funds’ (charging quite high expense fees) do not add much expertise in fund management. They would rather majorly mimic the Index (Nifty/Sensex). If you plan to put money in any fund which has more than 40-50% of it’s asset put in NIFTY stocks, would not it be prudent to rather put your money in an Index Fund and save on the expense fees. Also, the given fund should be protected against Index Draw-down. That adequately demonstrates the fund allocation skills of the fund manager. You can see the comparison of the PPFAS with an Index fund over a considerable long period. As in case of PPFAS, this is 20% (Approximately) of its total asset. Below is the break up.
Bajaj Investments                 - 5.88%
HDFC Bank                         - 5.63%
ICICI Bank                        - 2.61%
Axis Bank                         - 2.43%
Sun Pharma                        - 1.58%
Dr.Reddy                          - 1.57%
 
Total = 20% (Approximately)
I have not included the special situation/Arbitrage holdings because they are already hedged.


Fund Size (Asset Under Management)

It is not mandatory to report the capacity of the mutual fund as per Indian laws but it is an extremely important parameter to look at. Capacity of a fund is defined as the amount of money the fund can handle easily without deviating from the fund objective.
As a thumb rule, if a fund has a huge asset under management you should be cautious investing in it since the fund manager may not find so many opportunities to deploy such huge capital and which in turn can affect performance. Lately, I have seen one fund managed by Mirae Asset management stopping lump sum investment since it was finding it difficult to deploy funds. Further reading (2).

In case of PPFAS, the fund size is 1352 INR crore. During my interaction with Parag Parikh Sir in one of the investors meets at the early days of PPFAS, he had mentioned that the capacity of this fund is around 3500 INR crore. So as of now it is quite fine. Need to revisit this once the AUM grows closer to the 3500 INR crore figure.

Fund Manager Attrition

Look for fund schemes where there are not many instances of Fund Manager attrition. Every manager had his own distinct style and his own way of achieving the fund objective. Whenever there is frequent fund manager transition, the performance of the fund suffers. Ideally, the fund manager should be associated with the fund since inception of the fund, however, if that is not the case, association of 3 years or more can be a good thumb rule.
In case of PPFAS, you can see that both Raunak and Rajeev are there since almost the inception of this fund.



6
     Portfolio Turnover Ratio

This is a very important number to look at while selecting any equity mutual fund. The portfolio turnover ratio shows the amount of churning in the portfolio of the mutual fund. So, a low portfolio turnover ratio essentially means that the fund manager has a long term vision and is convinced about holding the stock even amidst short term volatility. If a fund has an exceptionally high Portfolio Turnover Ratio, however you notice that the fund’s portfolio has not changed much over a given period, there are chances that the mutual fund is involved in selling and purchasing the same stock in equal numbers to maintain the percentage allocation same but generating trading expense to support in house brokerage houses. I have observed this pattern in few of those mutual fund houses who has brokerage business too.
In case of PPFAS, the annualised figure is very low.




5 Years performance

The only performance which matters for a mutual fund is 5 years or more performance (since that is what the recommended holding period is). Performance for 5 years or more tells you exactly how the fund has performed over considerable business cycles.
In case of PPFAS, the annualized return for monthly SIP is 17.91% whereas the Nifty 50 has returned 15.43%

 




Total Expense Ratio(TER)

The total expense ratio (TER) is a measure of the total cost of a fund to the investor. Total costs may include various fees (purchase, redemption, auditing) and other expenses. The TER calculated by dividing the total annual cost by the fund's total assets averaged over that year, is denoted as a percentage. The lesser the TER, the better. Since that means more of your investment will be put to market.
In case of PPFAS, the TER is as below



Check the overlap of your existing fund’s holdings with the holding of this new fund. If there is an overlap of more than 40%, you need to choose between either of the 2 funds (depending on which fund is better based on the criteria already defined)


Social Media endorsement of the Fund Manager - Check how the comments and thoughts of the fund manager/CIO of the respective fund houses garner traction in social media platform like 'X' . That gives a fair idea of the thought process of the various fund house.

I look forward to your comments and may update this document if I feel I have something superior to add. My twitter ID -
@Booombaastic




References -
   
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   Hallmark of a Great Mutual Fund House !!

   In this note, I would mention the features that make a very good equity mutual fund. Below mentioned are some important factors that your Equity Mutual Fund should have in case you intend to invest in it:

1. Keeps Costs Low:

Mutual Funds are termed costly, which have higher expense ratios, low cost funds have lower expense ratios. Therefore to have a mutual fund with higher expense ratio will make less sense, because a large share of investor's hard earned money that he has parked to earn maximum returns, is consumed by the AMCs as a part of their fees. The expense incurred by the AMC / fund house determines the amount that gets invested. A low-cost mutual fund scheme charges low Total Expense Ratio (TER) for investing in their fund.


2. Be Transparent:

In today's world it is very important to maintain a good relationship with the customers, and to maintain a good relationship, there has to be a level of transparency. This holds true even for mutual funds, while all mutual funds disclose the stocks they buy through factsheets, not many disclose the amount of commission paid to Mutual Fund distributors.

It makes sense not to invest in a typical high-cost mutual fund that consciously uses distributors and big ads to attract your money!

3. Keeps Products Simple:

Rather than cluttering the investor's basket with all look-a-like products, that are only meant to confuse investors, a great mutual fund house believes it is better to offer few selective products that will answer our investor's investment needs. They behave as Asset Creators and not Asset Collectors.


4. Adopts a Prudent Approach:

AMC needs to follow prudent investment practices that nurture trust and confidence of its investors in them. Mis-selling of products should be avoided and the focus should be on customer satisfaction rather than profits. While some AMC's are slightly conservative, others go all out in the pursuit of high returns, which either may or may not pay off in the long run.


5. No Mis-selling, under any circumstances:

Mis-selling of products is one of the most common problems faced by the investors today. The industry is cluttered with look-alike products that are disguised with benefits. Mutual Funds are nothing but a pool of investors hard earned money invested in scheme that aims to grow and bring good returns. While SEBI has taken constructive steps to address this issue, it is AMCs responsibility to abide by the ethical practices and prevent mis-selling of its products.

6. Skin in the game:

The mutual fund AMC where the fund manager, trustee and other important people have substantial investment in their own funds. That ways you ensure they have skin in the game and are accountable for their work. 

Moreover, it is important to follow these fundamental practices and imbibe these ethics to build India's premier investment management company by offering our clients a disciplined research and investment process to take advantage of the long-term investment opportunities that exist across various asset classes - while balancing the inherent risks of investing in an evolving market.


PS: Compiled from my understanding of the various articles on this topic.
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